🏛️
Fed decision in September?
25 bps increase56%YesNo
No change44%YesNo
$74M Vol.
Prediction markets
Trade what you think will happen.
Buy and sell positions on real-world events — elections, crypto milestones, macro decisions, sport and more. Prices are set by traders, not a bookmaker.
Live board
Odds moving right now.
All markets
₿
BTC up or down 5m
51%
Up
Up
51%
Down
49%
LIVEBitcoin
🎾
2026 Men's US Open winner (Tennis)
Carlos Alcaraz34%YesNo
Alexander Zverev66%YesNo
$15M Vol.
🇺🇦
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by…?
June 30, 202750%YesNo
March 31, 202750%YesNo
$6M Vol.
🛳️
US announces end of Iranian blockade by…?
December 3164%YesNo
October 3136%YesNo
$24M Vol.
🎙️
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Anna Kelly26%YesNo
Scott Jennings74%YesNo
$203K Vol.
⚖️
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder?
30%
chance
Yes
30%
No
70%
$116K Vol.
🛰️
Next Mythos-class model released by…?
October 3196%YesNo
September 304%YesNo
$972K Vol.
⚽
Where will Julian Alvarez transfer?
Atletico Madrid90%YesNo
Arsenal10%YesNo
$1M Vol.
🛡️
NATO x Russia military clash by…?
December 3124%YesNo
October 3176%YesNo
$6M Vol.
🏦
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
15%
chance
Yes
15%
No
85%
$12M Vol.
🧠
Anthropic IPO by…?
December 31, 202741%YesNo
December 31, 202659%YesNo
$4M Vol.
01
Choose an event
Browse active markets across politics, crypto, macroeconomics, sport and culture. Each market has clear resolution criteria.
02
Buy a position
Buy Yes or No shares based on what you believe will happen. The price reflects the crowd's live estimate of probability.
03
Settle at outcome
When the event resolves, positions pay out at $1 per correct share. Settlement is based on verified, public sources.
What you can trade.
Markets are grouped by theme so you can go straight to the events you follow closely.
Macro & rates
Central bank decisions, inflation prints and policy outcomes.
Crypto
Price milestones, ETF decisions, protocol upgrades and listings.
Politics
Elections, appointments, legislation and geopolitical events.
Sport
Tournament winners, transfers and season-long outcomes.
Technology
Product launches, IPO timing and AI model releases.
World events
Treaties, ceasefires and other verifiable global outcomes.
Built for confident forecasting.
Prediction markets on Solaris Black are designed for clarity, fair settlement and straightforward position management.
Transparent resolution
Every market has published resolution criteria and a named source, so settlement is predictable and auditable.
Segregated market pools
Market liquidity is ring-fenced from trading capital, with real-time reporting on open interest and volume.
Continuous pricing
Prices update as traders take positions, giving you a live view of market sentiment around the clock.
Prediction markets, answered.
The basics before you take your first position.
What are prediction markets?
Prediction markets let you trade contracts that pay out based on the outcome of real-world events. The market price reflects the crowd's collective estimate of how likely an outcome is.
How are prices determined?
Prices are set by supply and demand from traders buying Yes or No shares. If more traders believe an event will happen, the Yes price rises and the implied probability increases.
How does settlement work?
When the event resolves, correct shares pay out at $1 each. Incorrect shares expire worthless. Settlement sources are published in advance for every market.
Open your Solaris Black account.
Set up in minutes and explore the platform on your terms.
Solaris Black Group entities are regulated in their respective jurisdictions as follows: (1) Solaris Black Exchange Limited is authorised to operate a multilateral trading facility for virtual assets; (2) Solaris Black Clearing and Custody Limited is authorised to provide clearing, custody and central securities depository services; and (3) Solaris Black Trading Limited is authorised to carry out the following regulated activities: (i) dealing in investments as principal; (ii) dealing in investments as agent; (iii) arranging deals in investments; (iv) managing assets; (v) providing money services; and (vi) arranging custody.
Risk Warning: Virtual asset prices can be volatile. The value of your investment may go down or up and you may not get back the amount invested. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and Solaris Black is not liable for any trading losses you may incur.